ALBANY — As best New Yorkers know, the state’s adage — Excelsior — agency “ever upward.”
The demography agency begs to differ.
In what has become an anniversary ritual, the federal agency has afresh appear estimated abstracts assuming that the state’s citizenry is abbreviating in alarming fashion. New York recorded its fourth after citizenry abatement and absent added bodies than any added state, the demography says.
Grim, right? Wait, there’s more.
As acclaimed in an assay of demography abstracts by the Empire Center for Public Policy, about 1.4 actor bodies larboard New York back 2010, which afresh is the bigger complete abatement recorded by any state. Only Alaska absent a above allotment of its residents.
Question: How do you say “ever downward” in Latin?
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Now, some of you ability be apprehensive what’s amiss with a crumbling population. Can’t we attending advanced to beneath curve at the cafeteria and cheaper absolute estate?
Sure, but the cafeteria will eventually abutting as its association withers. Places with crumbling populations are annihilation but dynamic; they can calmly abatement into a afterlife spiral.
That’s why, in a bigger world, assembly would be ailing to their stomachs over such adverse numbers. At the bald minimum, they’d be announcement the conception of a Assignment Force of Actual Important Bodies Dedicated to Stemming the Address and Saving New York.
But that, of course, is not what’s happening.
Democrats in the Legislature’s ability positions assume abhor to allocution about the state’s citizenry outflow. They rarely acknowledgment it.
Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, meanwhile, prefers to pretend aggregate is alluringly admirable in the accompaniment he’s led back 2011.
When affected to allocution about citizenry losses, the governor brand to accusation things above his ascendancy — like the weather. I’m somewhat afraid Cuomo doesn’t aloof bawl “Excelsior! Excelsior! Excelsior!” until reporters accord up.
Regardless, the state’s citizenry accelerate is an annoying truth, no amount how abundant assembly ambition otherwise, and blank the trend is affiliated to authoritative malpractice. If you affliction about New York, shouldn’t you affliction that sections of the accompaniment are bane away?
Two things are activity on here.
1. Democrats who ascendancy the Legislature accept a actual downstate/New York City appearance of things. And like the Capital Region, New York City, which continues to be a draw for immigrants, has abundantly been allowed from citizenry declines. Out of sight, out of mind.
2. Addressing the citizenry abatement would beggarly allurement some afflictive questions about action decisions. Namely, it would beggarly demography a abutting attending at a accompaniment tax accountability that, by abounding measures, is the nation’s highest.
Cuomo isn’t absolutely amiss about balmy acclimate cartoon association away. Alike a winter lover like me is affected to accept that retirees adore a little January sunshine.
Contact columnist Chris Churchill at [email protected] or 518-454-5442.
Still, it is no accompaniment that Florida, the top destination for New Yorkers who move away, has balmy acclimate and no assets tax. Meanwhile, absolutely a few New Yorkers are affective to adjacent states with agnate acclimate but about lower taxes.
Nearly 16 percent of New Yorkers who accept larboard back 2010 confused to New Jersey, the Empire Center found, while addition 7.1 percent confused to Pennsylvania and 5.6 percent ancient for Connecticut.
In Columbia and Rensselaer counties, adjoining Massachusetts, with its lower acreage taxes, was the top destination for abandonment residents. In abounding of the counties forth the state’s southern border, lower-tax Pennsylvania was the top destination.
Granted, this is an contrary time to be talking about the state’s tax problem. With a $6.1 billion account gap looming, Democrats in the Legislature can be accepted to attending at tax increases to ample the aperture — no amount what the demography abstracts says.
“That’s activity to drive added bodies away,” Nick Langworthy, arch of the accompaniment Republican Party, warned Monday, afore anecdotic connected citizenry losses as “a sad upstate anecdotal that’s now acceptable the sad New York accompaniment narrative.”
If the Legislature did anytime actualize that Assignment Force of Actual Important People, what would the accumulation do?
Well, it ability alpha its assignment by acquainted that New York’s taxes, acreage taxes especially, are apprenticed abundantly by per-pupil academy spending that’s calmly the accomplished in the nation, according, already again, to that annoying demography bureau.
The assignment force ability alike advance that with a few key reforms, including eliminating mandates that accept little to do with teaching kids, New York could calibration apprenticeship costs bottomward to the akin of, say, Massachusetts, which has awful admired schools and spends about 30 percent beneath per pupil.
Not likely, I know. In the affair that begins Wednesday, assembly will accord no allusive absorption to the state’s citizenry drop.
And that cessation will beggarly that New York about absolutely continues its abatement — authoritative Excelsior, a chat acutely displayed on the state’s new authorization plate, an more acrid motto.
[email protected] ■ 518-454-5442 ■ @chris_churchill
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